🔮 2026 CRE Financing Forecast: What Investors & Borrowers Must Know!

📈 Next-Gen CRE Finance in 2026: Trends, Risks & Opportunity for Brokers

2026 Commercial Real Estate Financing Predictions for Savvy Borrowers & Brokers
By Bill Rapp – Medallion Mortgage & Medallion Funds

Welcome! If you’re a real estate investor, developer, builder or commercial mortgage borrower—or a mortgage broker working those markets—you’ll want to pay close attention to what’s coming in 2026. In this post we’ll dive into what’s shaping commercial real estate (CRE) financing, what to expect next year, and how you (and your clients) can prepare. As always, we’ll bring a practical lens for borrowers, lenders and referral partners in the capital markets.

The 2026 Financing Backdrop

The CRE financing landscape is entering a pivotal year. Here are the key backdrop items:

·A massive maturity wave: More than $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans are due by end of 2026, creating a refinancing bottleneck. PBMares+2S&P Global+2

·Lending activity ramping: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects total commercial & multifamily originations to reach $709 billion in 2026, up from $583 billion in 2025. MBA+1

·Capital becoming selective: While debt availability is improving, lenders remain highly selective regarding asset quality, property type and sponsor strength. Deloitte+2Deloitte+2

·Asset-class performance diverging: Sectors such as industrial, logistics and data centers are stronger, while traditional office and some retail face headwinds. Kidder Mathews+2PBMares+2

Five Key Predictions for 2026 Financing

Here are five major financing trends you should be ready for in 2026, especially from a mortgage broker’s vantage point.

1. Refinancing Pressure & “Maturity Wall” Becomes Reality

With trillions of dollars coming due, many borrowers will face either higher interest, lower proceeds or the need for additional equity infusion. NAIOP+1
Broker tip: Encourage clients to engage early—review maturity dates, assess exit strategies, explore alternative lenders now.

2. Capital Flowing, but Favouring Quality Assets

Originations are increasing, but the focus is shifting to lower‐risk properties, strong markets and sponsors capable of executing. Deloitte+1
Broker tip: Help clients highlight occupancy trends, tenant diversification, and sponsor track record. Emphasise properties in stable or growth markets (e.g., Sunbelt, industrial/logistics) versus weaker markets.

3. Rates & Spreads Stay Elevated but May Moderate

Although long-term rates may ease modestly, borrowers who locked in very low rates will feel pressure when needing to refinance into higher‐cost debt. S&P Global+1
Broker tip: Run amortisation and cash-flow models for your clients under higher-rate scenarios, emphasise debt-service coverage margins, and stress test for future rate increases.

4. Growth of Alternative Lending Channels

Banks remain cautious; private credit funds, non-bank lenders and creative structures are stepping in. Deloitte+1
Broker tip: Position yourself as an advisor who is fluent with non‐traditional lenders (CMBS, credit funds, mezzanine debt) and can match clients to broader capital sources.

5. ESG, Modernisation & Tech-Driven Assets Benefit

As assets requiring major retrofit (especially older offices) face risk of obsolescence, lenders will reward properties with future-proofing, ESG credentials and strong tenant demand. PwC+1
Broker tip: For clients owning older assets, advise on strategies for repositioning, upgrade budgets and capital planning. Highlight how doing so may unlock better loan terms or more favourable financing.

Specific Implications for Your Mortgage Brokerage & Referral Network

Since your focus is on commercial mortgage brokerage (through Medallion Mortgage) with Houston/Katy TX as base, here’s how you can apply these insights:

·Borrower education: Craft co-marketing materials with your referral partners (real‐estate brokers, builders, investors) explaining the maturity-wave risk and refinancing urgency.

·Loan product readiness: Be ready to present not just standard bank debt, but mezzanine, bridge, alternative credit-sourced debt, and highlight your relationships with non-bank lenders who specialise in these markets.

·Targeted sectors: Focus on strong asset classes in Houston/Sunbelt region: industrial/logistics, data-centre adjacent, supply‐chain warehousing, multi-family in growing markets—help clients position for better terms.

·Sponsor strength & documentation: Encourage your borrowers to maintain clean financials, stable occupancy, and strong asset-management plans. Lenders will be picky.

·Forecasting & advisory role: Your value rises when you act as a strategic adviser, not just a transaction broker—help clients model out financing options, exit strategies, refinance stress tests.

Key Takeaways for 2026

·Massive refinancing volume = pressure but also opportunity for brokers who move early.

·Debt capital is returning, but under stricter underwriting—quality counts.

·Rates may moderate slightly, but borrowers refinancing from ultra-low rates will feel pain.

·Alternative lending channels will play a larger role—be ready to navigate them.

·Asset differentiation via ESG, modernisation and evolving tenant demand will influence financing terms.

·Your role: educate, advise, connect capital—especially in the Houston/Sunbelt corridor.

Final Thoughts

2026 isn’t simply a repeat of past cycles. The structural shifts in how assets are used (e.g., office, remote-work, logistics), combined with large maturity volumes and evolving capital sources, mean that brokers and borrowers must think proactively. At Medallion Mortgage and Medallion Funds, we’re positioned to help clients navigate this evolving landscape—whether you’re an investor refinancing a 1–4 unit small multifamily, a doctor‐owner developer repositioning a mixed-use project, or a builder breaking ground on a logistics conversion.

Let’s connect and make sure your financing strategy isn’t reactive in 2026—it’s proactive and aligned for success.

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© 2023-2024 Bill Rapp, Medallion Funds LLC, Director of Capital Advisory