📈 2026 CRE Buying Activity Is Back — Why Disciplined Investors Are Re-Entering the Market

🏢 Commercial Real Estate in 2026: More Buyers, Smarter Leverage, Better Deals

2026 to See Increased CRE Buying Activity: A Disciplined Reset, Not a Speculative Boom

Commercial real estate is entering a new phase in 2026—and the signal is clear: investors are buying again. But this cycle looks very different from the excess-driven expansion of the past decade. Today’s activity is defined by pricing discipline, conservative leverage, and durable cash flow, not aggressive assumptions.

For borrowers, developers, and investors, this environment creates opportunity—but only if capital is structured correctly.

Investor Confidence Is Rebuilding

After several years of rate volatility and stalled transactions, confidence is returning. Nearly 95% of investors plan to acquire the same or more assets in 2026, while 55% are increasing capital allocations to real estate, a meaningful jump from last year.

What’s driving the shift?

·Stabilizing interest rates

·Narrowing bid-ask spreads

·Underwriting assumptions that finally pencil again

In short, the math is working again—but only for deals with sound fundamentals.

Capital Is Moving—Selectively

This is not a “buy everything” market. Capital is flowing to well-located, income-producing assets where pricing has adjusted and downside risk is understood.

From a financing standpoint, this favors borrowers who:

·Present realistic rent growth assumptions

·Structure conservative leverage

·Focus on long-term hold strategies

Lenders are active—but they are rewarding preparation and discipline.

Where Investors Are Buying in 2026

Geographically, investor demand remains concentrated in high-growth, liquid markets.

·Dallas–Fort Worth remains the top U.S. market for the fifth straight year

·Atlanta continues to attract capital due to population and job growth

·San Francisco is re-emerging as a selective recovery play

·Charlotte and Tampa reinforce the strength of Sun Belt fundamentals

These markets offer liquidity, demographic tailwinds, and lender comfort—critical factors in today’s credit environment.

Sector Preferences: Back to Fundamentals

Investor interest in 2026 is anchored in traditional property types with clear cash-flow visibility:

·Multifamily remains the top sector

·Industrial continues to benefit from reshoring and logistics demand

·Retail attracts capital where tenant mix and pricing are right

·Office is still limited—but selectively returning for Class A assets in prime locations

Alternative assets remain niche, as most investors prefer repriced core sectors with proven demand.

Risk Appetite Is Measured, Not Aggressive

Roughly two-thirds of investors are targeting value-add and core-plus strategies—seeking stable income with controlled upside.

Opportunistic and distressed strategies are fading as:

·Widespread fire-sale pricing fails to materialize

·Lenders avoid forced liquidations

·Owners with strong balance sheets hold assets longer

This favors borrowers who can execute business plans without relying on heroic assumptions.

Conservative Leverage Is the New Normal

From a capital markets perspective, leverage discipline defines 2026:

·Most investors are holding debt ratios steady

·Nearly half are willing to accept short-term negative leverage

·The bet is on rent growth and refinancing—not yield compression

This creates strong demand for structured debt, flexible terms, and lender diversification—areas where mortgage brokers add significant value.

Bottom Line

2026 marks a return to buying—not a return to excess.

Commercial real estate investors are re-entering the market with confidence grounded in:

·Improved pricing

·Disciplined leverage

·Long-term fundamentals

For borrowers and investors, success in this cycle depends less on timing the market—and more on structuring capital correctly from day one.

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© 2023-2024 Bill Rapp, Medallion Funds LLC, Director of Capital Advisory